If there is a place you got a go, I am the one you need to know, I am the map! (x10) (Green group10/30/2012 Pick the outcome of electoral college using the interactive map. Who wins in your scenario? What key states swing your prediction to the winner? Why? Are those states voting different than recent historical past? Based on the map where you advise the candidates to go? Why? What states would be in favor of the electoral college and why? Who gets shortchanged?
24 Comments
10/30/2012 03:30:49 am
In my scenario, Romney wins. The key states that swing the vote are Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Most of these states have swung either way in the past. New Hampshire and Wisconsin will probably remain liberal and vote democrat. Since Iowa swung democrat in 2004 and republican in 2008, I predict Iowa will swing democrat. Since Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida swung republican in 2004 and democrat in 2008, I predict that they will swing republican. This is not different from recent historical past, since they have been swinging back and forth in past elections. Based on the map, I recommend that candidates visit these swinging states, because they are the deciding factor.
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Wendy Maxson
10/30/2012 04:48:42 am
According to my scenario, Obama wins the election. The key states that swing the election Democratically are Ilinois and Pennsylvania with 20 electoral votes, Ohio with 18, and Michigan with 16. I strongly believe that Ohio will vote Democratic because Ohio has many industrial workers affected by outsourcing and they know that Republicans are the ones for free trade so it is conceivable that Ohio will vote Democrat again. Also, Romney has been appealing to many women voters in the swing states. Compared to the 2008 election I believe most of the key swing states will remain the same because I think the democratic Obama will win again. I would advise Romney and Obama to continue to visit these swing states because they will have a large impact on the outcome of the election. These smaller states and large electoral votes are key to swinging the the election one way or the other. The smaller states would be in favor for the electoral college because each persons vote in those states would count for a lot more than those living in larger populations. The votes of people living in more populated states such as California and New York will count for almost nothing in comparison. Many people in this situation don't see the point in voting.
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Wendy Maxson
10/30/2012 04:50:15 am
*Obama has been appealing to many women voters (not Romney)
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Carlos Gutierrez
10/30/2012 08:21:17 am
According to the scenario Ive conceived, President Obama will win the upcoming election. The swing states that will give the democratic party the win are Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida with 95 electoral votes combined. Nevada will vote democrat because, according to recent polls, Nevada citizens feel like President Obama will deal better with the economy than Governor Romney would. Ohio, as Wendy Maxson said, has many workers that have been affected by outsourcing, and they know that Romneys outsourcing record would not benefit them. I say that the rest of the states will also vote Obama because in the past election they all supported him, i dont beleive that their votes will change. I recommend that both candidates campaign vigorously in these swing states, specially Governor Romney, as the states that are undecided during this election hvae a tract record of leaning a bit more to the democrat side. The states that get shortchanged in the electoral college are deffinetly the larger states such as California. This happens because the weight of the vote doesnt match the population of the state, for this reason states that agree with the electoral college are hose states that are smaller as the eclectoral college gives them more say and power into who becomes president.
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Tim Krausz
10/30/2012 10:03:54 am
In my synopsis, President Obama emerges victorious by a narrow margin. Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada proved to be the deciding swing states. Because Obama only won by six electoral votes, every state was essential. Even if he lost a state that carried only three electoral votes, he could not have won the election. Therefore, the undecided swing states that Obama acquired were the key to his electoral victory. These deciding states followed the trends that have been established based on the last three elections about voting preference. Based on the map, I would advise Obama to campaign heavily in Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada, where they are more likely to vote Democratic. Romney, however, should focus on Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, and Colorado as well, in an attempt to sway the state back to its Republican voting habits. They seem to favor voting Republican, so he could appeal to their fundamental beliefs. Swing states and states of small populations would be in favor of the electoral system, for it gives their state more attention from the candidates and their votes more weight than in other states. Highly populated states are given less power to the individual's vote, and states with predictable electoral outcomes are given nearly no attention by the candidates.
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Lola Behrens
10/30/2012 12:52:23 pm
In my scenario, President Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. The final outcome will land Obama with 280 electoral votes, and Romney with only 258. The swing states that would eventually vote for Obama would be Florida, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Romney would fail to land the votes from New Hampshire and Florida votes because of very recent events concerning Hurricane Sandy. Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie has repeatedly praised Obama's collaboration with the state, and as the President has been very involved in aiding the states who are currently suffering from the storm. In contrast, Romney's approach to the same subject has cost him greatly, as he is the same man who stated that he would dismantle FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). New Hampshire is being directly affected by Sandy, which would swing their votes to Obama, and Florida is a state who is prone to natural disasters, thus leading them to vote democratic. In the 2008 election, both of these states voted Democratic as well. Based on my predictions from the CNN 2012 Electoral Map, I would advise Obama and Romney to invest their time in Ohio, as that states presents the opportunity 18 electoral votes, and Colorado, because there are two distinct demographics (many right-wing Christians versus many young, college students). The Electoral system does not benefit large states such as California and Texas, whose votes have less weight than the smaller, less populated states. However, some smaller states who only have 3 or 4 electoral votes, such as Wyoming and New Hampshire, are likely in favor of the Electoral College, because their votes have more influence in the election and are widely paid more attention during the campaigning period.
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Austin Hechelr
10/30/2012 02:14:27 pm
In my situation the winner of the 2012 Presidential election is President Obama. Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. I do believe that Obama has done well campaigning in the previous states and Ohio and Pennsylvania both totaling 38 electoral votes. In the end New Hampshire sitting in the belly of the liberal North East adds 4 more, Colorado adds 9 and North Carolina puts Obama at 283. I believe that Obama has given speeches to many Universities in Colorado including one i attended at Boulder, and has really hyped up the Coloradans to vote for him this year. North Carolina is a really close call but in my opinion. Historically the Republican party has garthered most of the votes of North Carolina, but Obama has spent over $22 million in advertisements. Obama has also gathers the young voters by preaching to the Universities like he has in Colorado and the most important part, wins and utilizes the black vote in North Carolina to lead him to victory. Ohio is very importent in this election and historically often decides the winner of many elections. When the democratic nominee wins Ohio he has often won the election. New Hampshire has mainly been a democratic state, voting that way in both the 2004 and 2008 elections. Colorado voted for the democratic nominee in 2008 but not 2004. I thought that Bush had a stronger campaign in 2004 and had a better plan for the United States then Kerry, winning swing states like Colorado. Key states to fight for are defiantly Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Florida or Ohio will decide this election. With 29 electoral votes, it is very advisable that candidates work hard to gather those votes. Florida ties New York for the third most electoral votes in the U.S. and because its undecided its a very importent states. Ohio is also very importent State with its 18 electoral votes and has decided many elections. North Carolina with a strong 15 votes is similar to Ohio in that its a has a large amount of votes in a concentrated area and its importent Obama utilize them. The small states are defiantly in favor of the electoral college. The electoral system benefits the smaller states and not those like California and Texas. California and Texas, to list a few, are states that are mainly decided and the nominees choose not to waste their time in states they know they can count on, and focus on the smaller swing states. The smaller states are more in favor of the system because their votes have more influence in the election and get more attention then the larger and decided states.
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Catalina Jacobo
10/31/2012 05:44:01 am
In my scenerio Obama wins the elecetion. The key states that made the outcome the way it is were the most populated states. I would suggest that the people running should go to where the population is big. Also they should get states were people always vote and are decided on who they want to vote on.
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Jose A Hernandez
10/31/2012 06:35:20 am
By nearing to election deadline, November 6, the canditates are working hard to influence the states into republican or democrat. believe President Obama will the 2012 capaing giving him a second term in office. In the past week with destruction of Hurrican Sandy, aka the perfect storm, accoriding to FOX News Obama has cancels several of his capaigns to deal with the crisis of the storm. I believe by assisting the states he will get Virgina and Florida, swings states under his wings for theyre vunerable to the storm. If Florida, Ohio, and Virginia vote for Obama, Obama wins the capaing for they have a higher electorical vote than other swing states. If Romney wants to win Florida Ohio and Virginia are the key states for his elction. Some people dislike the idea of electorical vote, for the larger the population of the state the more electorial votes the state gives, but which mean smaller states have fewer electorical votes; although with the large populated states each vote of the American doesn't really impact the campaign. But the state that could swing different than than the 2008 campain could be Nevada. In 2004 it went for republican.
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Richard Hoppe
10/31/2012 11:45:06 am
In my scenario, Romney wins the 2012 election by a slim margin. The 8 key states that swing the election are Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Iowa. These 8 "bubble" states have a total of 95 electoral votes, which will affect the outcome of this election. In 2004, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida all voted for republicans, but in 2008 they wanted a new change and switched the democratic view. I believe these states will make the way back to the republican side due to the fact that they didnt like the change they got. New Hampshire and Wisconsin will stay towards the democratic sides due to the past elections. You can not really predict what will happen with some states, because they sway every election. It is really up to these canidates to hit these states hard and get a final say for who they are voting for. The two main swing states are Florida and Ohio, and those are the two main states these canidates need to hit. If they want a jump on their opponent, they need to get those two states. Florida having a total of 29 votes and Ohio having 18. Those are two big states that could change the election. The electoral college is in favor for all the small states, rather than the larger ones, where most votes don't count. As in California, being democratic heavy, most republican votes do not matter. All of these swing states have a huge change on the electoral college, so it is key that these canidates go out and get them if they would like to win.
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10/31/2012 02:45:18 pm
According to my scenario in CNN's 2012 electoral map, president Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. The important deciding swing states proved to be Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. It is well known that swing states such as the ones I previously mentioned, have played important roles in deciding who the victor will be in previous presidential elections. I would assume that both candidates would, but if not, I would highly advise them to campaign in the swing states, primarily the one's leaned towards them in previous elections. For Obama, possibly Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Iowa, while I'd advise Romney to possibly campaign in Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Small states are definitely in favor of the electoral college because one's individual vote there, unlike in larger states, is more significant and carries a heavier weight when it comes to the election, unlike in larger states, where it is pretty much obvious which side a state will take.
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Helena Fontana
11/1/2012 03:21:33 am
In my scenario, the outcome of the map shows president Barack Obama will win the 2012 election. He with 295 votes while Romney only had 149. The 6 key states are California, Washington, Utah, Texas, New York, and Michigan. I believe these states are leaning towards a candidate that knows what he is doing and is involved with this country. Also a man that does not go back on the things he says. Some states, such as California is voting differently than they have in the past. But for good reason. The states in favor of electoral votes will be small states, California or New York on the other hand would not be for electoral votes because our votes would count as almost nothing compared. Because our votes go to the electoal college and they then make the final vote, most Americans dont see how voting themselves makes a difference. Some start to give up.
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Victor Carriero
11/1/2012 11:27:16 am
Their both bad presidents I VOTE NONE! -Peace
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Nancy Hernandez
11/1/2012 12:47:10 pm
According to my scenario, President Obama will win the election. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire are the deciding swing states. However I predicted that all of the states who voted Democrat in the 2008 election, who had voted Republican in the years before, will once again vote Democrat. The reason why their state swung to the Democratic side in the first place, was probably because they believed in the change Obama was advocating. If the President was able to win their vote with his ideas the first time he ran for office and if they are true supporters of Obama, they’ll continue to vote Democrat for this up coming election. I would recommend the Candidates to go the states I mentioned above, but especially the ‘toss up’ states with a large amount of electoral votes because in the end, they are the deciding factor. Generally, the states in favor of the electoral college are the small states because it gives them more power to have their voices heard, where as the individual votes in large states are shortchanged.
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Sarah Gamble
11/1/2012 01:18:41 pm
In my scenario, Barack Obama wins by a close margin. Each state is essential to the election as it will be a tight race. However, I predict Obama will take Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin, three essential states that he took in the 2008 election, and carry 57 electoral votes total. I believe the swing states will be Florida and Iowa as usual. Based on this, I would advise the two candidates to spend energy and resources in these two states in order to ultimately swing the election in their favor. Florida and Iowa carry 29 and 6 electoral votes respectively. If these two states went republican like they did in the 2004 election, they could tip the scale in Romney’s favor. Therefore, Obama must defend these two states and try to make them stay democratic like they did in the 2008 election. Because of the importance of these two states, I believe both candidates will be spending an extensive amount of time in both places. Small states as well as swing states such as Florida and Ohio enjoy the electoral system as candidates spend more time in those states, because they know they voting direction of the other larger states already.
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Knute Meyer
11/1/2012 02:05:08 pm
In my scenario, Romney wins. The key undecided states he acquires in my opinion are Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. In 2004 all of these states voted republican, but in 2008 they voted the opposite. I believe this time around these states will go back to their previous votes since I believe they did not receive the change they were hoping for. I understand that because these states changed their vote from republican in 2004 to democrat in 2008 that they must not have like their leadership during those four years. However I believe Romney is different enough from his republican predecessor in a positive way that those states will most likely go republican due to the fact that many of these state’s population blue collared families that are not happy with the current leadership. I suggest both Romney and Obama visit Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin, since those states have the highest electoral votes out of all the undecided states. I think the smaller populated states favor the electoral college because every state, no matter how small, gets at least 3 electoral votes, and so small states have more electoral votes per voter. I believe the larger populated states get short changed because the individual’s vote does not matter if the majority, however slight, votes one way.
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Martha Lopez
11/1/2012 02:38:17 pm
In my scenario Obama wins. I have done some research on how the toss up states have voted in the past and how they're going to be affected in this year elections. Nevada in 2008 voted democrat but in 2004 voted republican I believe Obama will take this state thanks to the strong appeal of Latino voters even thought Nevada economy has declined since president Obama took office. Colorado voted democrat in 2008 and republican in 2004. So I believe that Mitt Romney will take this state since only last year Colorado voted democrat for the last 9 presidential elections. To win this state Romney will have to appeal to independents and women which has been a big challenge for him. Iowa will take Romney since it looks like attacks from Romney to Obama have kept the president poll rating lower than other nearly states. Wisconsin will be taken by Romney since his vice president is Paul D. Ryan who is a representative of this state. Ohio will be for Obama since they have voted for the presidential candidate in the last 12 elections also an improving economy in this state can have Obama win it. Virginia will be taken by Obama since Romney's argument against expansion of goverment is complicated by the number of goverment workers here I'll give New Hamshire to Romney since he has a vacation home there. If Romney makes the right move. I'll give Florida to Romney though I believe Obama will take it thanks to the Latino vote.
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Georgia McClain
11/1/2012 03:13:44 pm
In my scenario Obama would win the up coming presidential election. He would win Florida, Colorado, and Wisconsin based on the past election. Obtaining these states Obama would have 285 and Romney at 235. These 3 swing states would determine the final outcome of the 2012 election. If Obama is trying the pull some last minute voters he should focus on Florida, which has the highest number of electoral voters. Having won Florida in the past, this shouldn’t be a problem for Obama for this upcoming election. The Electoral College is more for the larger states who are able to have more say during presidential election where as the smaller states are over powered and have less of an impact. Having a larger population and a greater number of electoral votes makes it so these states have more say on who is elected then states such as Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Delaware. Many people are now in favor of abandoning electoral college to give the people the say during presidential elections.
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Jesus Armando Hernandez
11/1/2012 03:53:47 pm
In my scenario, Obama wins. Manly because the following states are with Obama; Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, New York (Which makes a great change in his campaign against Romney), Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey Delaware, Maryland, and New York. New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania are leaning towards Obama which also gives a good boost against Romney. The 8 Swing States are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virgina, Florida and New Hampshire. The 8 states have a sum of 95 electoral vote which will greatly affect the outcome of this election. In 2004, states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Virgina, North Carolina, and Florida all had a grave effect on Obama, but on 2008 all those states went with Obama and he won by majority of the vote. All those states switch from republican to democratic. Maybe they do want change and think Obama can really do something? States are unpredictable whether they chose republican or democratic, these candidates fight to persuade the states to vote for them and obviously Obama has the upper hand in votes.
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Viridiana Delgado
11/1/2012 04:09:26 pm
In my scenario, Barack Obama wins the 2012 President Election. The key states that swing my election towards Obama are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. I feel that they will swing that way, because or the 2008 election, they will once again lean towards Obama's ideas and support him. For the Most part, I believe that most states are going to vote the same as they did in 2008. I advise that the candidates go towards undecided larger states with more electoral votes, this will more likely lead them towards victory, for example maybe Florida, Nevada, and Colorado. States of small populations would be in favor of the electoral college, because not only do their votes weigh more than the bigger states, but they will also receive more attention from the candidates.
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Emily O'Kelly
11/1/2012 04:19:57 pm
In my scenario, President Barack Obama will reign over Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. The key states that Obama needs to secure his victory are Florida, New Hampshire and Colorado. These states play a significant role in the election because they could potentially support Obama with 42 electoral votes, boosting him up to a mighty score of 279, which would land him right back in the White House. In previous elections, all three states that play a key role in the current presidential election have voted Democrat. This proves an even bigger advantage towards Obama, because he won over these states four years ago. My advice to Romney and Obama would be to focus on three key states—Florida, Ohio and Virginia. These three states are the “toss ups” with the highest number of electoral votes. In regards to Senator Mitt Romney, I would advise him to repair his damaged image with the states currently affected by Hurricane Sandy, as there has been a bit of skepticism over his support of the natural disaster. Small states would be in favor of the electoral college, because it acknowledges their votes and allows for them to have more persuasion than say California or Texas.
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Daniel Gonzalez
11/1/2012 04:59:54 pm
In my scenario, Barack Obama won the election with just over 20 electoral votes. The undecided states that really effect my election which lead Obama to win were Ohio with 18, Wisconsin with 10, Nevada with 6, Colorado with 9, Iowa with 6, and New Hampshire with 4 electoral votes. These states that I said i presumed would favor Obama because they were very close to other states that favored Obama. Also states that were favoring Obama like New Mexico and Michigan favored Obama because i the 2008 election they both voted for him. Mostly not alot of the states have changed their voting since the last 4 years except for Nevada and Florida for example. Both these states voted for Obama last year, and now in the new electoral map, it shows that there not really even favoring the side of Obama, but just staying in the undecided part. Both candidates at the moment are trying to pursue the undecided votes and the uninformed voters to go vote for them. I would say that Obama will win the election again because I feel that he speaks for to the younger voting audience better that Romney, and those are quite the number of votes that there are for the new 18 year old that are able to vote next week. Based on the map I would highly recommend that the candidates both set up campaigns in Ohio and Florida, because both of them combined make a total of 47 electoral votes in the end, and that really makes a difference right now because there both really head to head at the moment. The Candidates should be heading out to the smaller states as well because they are the ones that are in favor of the electoral college, because of such low populating, your vote wont really be factored out by the others around you, and thats why bigger states like California would oppose of the electoral college because one side would highly choose a side the other wont get their opinion stated.
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Nicole LeMieux
11/4/2012 07:51:02 am
In my scenario, President Barack Obama will win the upcoming election. He appeals to a wider range of voters than Governor Mitt Romney, who isolates a variety of social groups. I think that Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada will support Obama, resulting in a final tally of 274 electoral votes for the current president. Ohio, for example, is likely to support Obama because he has demonstrated support for local industry, whereas Romney has made false claims and lost the respect of the local people. Michigan will likely vote for Obama because he has directly supported their local industry as well, and Romney has been quoted saying that he would have taken vastly different action than President Obama in regards to the auto industry, based highly in Detroit, Michigan. I would advise that the candidates focus on Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, because they carry a higher number of electoral votes than most states, and in these crucial last few days, there is still a possibility of swaying voters. States with a dense population would be in favor of the electoral college, because they have the most representation based on their population, these states are generally large states, such as California. Smaller states, such as New Hampshire, get shortchanged because they have a smaller population and therefore receive less representation in the electoral college than larger states.
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Catherine White
11/6/2012 12:46:26 pm
In my perfect scenario, Obama would win the 2012 presidential election again Romney. The key states that would swing Obama into being a shoe-in for the 2012 elections would be Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. Combining those three states means that it adds a total of 44 electoral college votes to his score of 237, putting him at a total of 281. If Obama received the electoral college votes from Nevada, Colorado, and Florida he would be able to be re-elected as our President of the United States. In the past the three states have been democratic, therefore, Obama should so his best make sure that he gets there support on this election as well. Obama should focus on state that are leaning towards him, such as New Mexico, or states that have previously supported him. Romney should focus on the places in the east coast where he was not able to get to during campaigning time because of the hurricane. Romney most likely has a better chance of claiming votes from Arizona or North Carolina because they are already leaning towards republican. I would think that states such as California or New York would favor the electoral college considering they have such a huge population compared to Oklahoma or Wyoming. Oklahoma and Wyoming would get shortchanged because they have a lesser population. Having a smaller population lowers your chances of a fair overall vote.
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